Politics is riddled with ironies. It rhymes with poetic justice. So if Joe bidenJoe Biden White House: Window to Finalize Broad âShutdownâ Budget Package Jayapal says the tuition-free community college âlikely won’tâ be in the spending plan. January 6 panel votes to despise Bannon PLUS wins the nomination, and if he is elected president, then he could find himself in a position to save the economy for the second time.
The first time, of course, was in 2009, when the Great Recession devastated jobs, financial markets and retirement accounts, and signs of foreclosure sprouted like dandelions in suburban neighborhoods. The Obama administration spent two years of its first term in crisis mode, dragging the auto industry from the brink of bankruptcy, supporting financial markets and adopting a much maligned stimulus package. The result has been a slow but steady recovery from an economic disaster.
The second time would come if he was elected amid an economy rocked by the impacts of the coronavirus. It’s not the fall of 2008, when the last financial crisis sent the economy into a spiral, but it certainly does have a few reminders. The first signs are worrying. The stock market swung wildly. Five minutes after this week’s opening, trading was halted after the stock market fell. The S&P 500 has fallen almost 20% in just a few weeks. Such a “free fall” has “vaporized more than $ 5,000 billion in stock market wealth,” the New York Times wrote.
a airline business group predicted total losses of up to $ 113 billion for the industry worldwide, spilling over to virtually every other aspect of the economy as taxi driver executives feel the pinch. The Federal Reserve enacted an emergency rate cut in the first of these measures since the Great Recession. Competition between Saudi Arabia and Russia has triggered the biggest drop in oil prices since the Gulf War, and gold prices have been erratic.
A financial analyst told The New York Times there was “panic” and warned of a coming global recession. What if he’s right? What if layoffs go up and wages go down? What if bankruptcies and foreclosures start to spread? My prediction is that the coronavirus will subside, as it appears to be doing in China, and the economy will eventually return to normal. But we live in an abnormal age where guesswork and experts are quickly discredited.
These are the immediate questions for Democrats in this race for the primaries. What prescriptions will cure a struggling economy? Is this an experiment with socialism or the Obama-era policies that worked before? If the economy is still weak this fall, and the legislative elections are between Donald trumpDonald Trump Trump defends indicted GOP congressman to vote Thursday in contempt of Bannon Youngkin calls for investigation of Loudoun County school board amid allegations of sexual assault MORE and Biden, that’s the question. Do you trust the guy whose policies kept us in this mess or the guy who got us out before?
The answers might surprise you. We live in such a polarized environment now that many Americans do not vote with their wallets. They vote with their emotions towards Trump. Trump lovers will believe they are living in a booming economy even if it is going bankrupt. Trump’s critics will believe they are living in a broken economy even if it is booming. What about the people in the middle? This election is hanging on those voters, and without a strong economy to point to, Trump will lose them.
Steve IsraelSteven (Steve) J. Israel âDesign-Buildâ Contracts Key to Successful Infrastructure 5 Reasons This Week’s Political War Is Different From Any Other Anthrax Was 2001 COVID-19 MORE represented New York in Congress for 16 years and served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Institute of Politics and Global Affairs at Cornell University. You can find him on Twitter @RepSteveIsrael.